Homogamy tipping point update: between elections edition

After the last election I described the trend toward legal homogamy as taking a tipping point shape. Not a media-hype tipping point that’s really just a milestone or watershed (like the arbitrary 50%), but a bona fide straw-that-breaks-the camel’s-back shape – that is, an exponential trend.

The between-election update shows us continuing on that trend, with Rhode Island and now Delaware falling on the line. Here I’ve plotted the percent of the population living under a post-homogamy state regime, and the number of states (including DC):homogamy-tipping-point

Even assuming they don’t legalize it nationally, if the Supreme Court lets California’s homogamy law stand after all this graph will go through the proverbial roof.

On the other hand, of course, the future is not yet determined. We won’t know till it happens what happened. In that I must agree with the Family Research Council, Heritage Foundation and National Organization for Marriage, who write in a recent pamphlet:

Q: Isn’t same-sex marriage inevitable?
A: No.

(I disagree with the rest of the pamphlet.)

6 Comments

Filed under In the news, Politics

6 responses to “Homogamy tipping point update: between elections edition

  1. “All Americans have the freedom to live as they choose, but no one has the right to redefine marriage for all of us.” [from said pamphlet] Sounds like the plaintive cry of someone whose definition did apply to all of us but who is now losing the power to impose that definition.

  2. Dan

    Are you counting DC as a state?

  3. The next issue is state recognition of other states same sex marriages. Will Utah, say, be compelled to recognize a same sex marriage from ny? This could easily be a Supreme Court case.

    • Richard

      If Utah recognizes any other marriage from out of state without additional paperwork then not recognizing a NY one on basis of sexual orientation would be discrimination. Does Utah have the choice to selectively honor drivers licences of gays, straights, blacks or whites? No.

      If Utah chooses to make all couples reapply for Utah paperwork to mirror their out of state licences when they start living in Utah they could make their own requirements. Can Utah force new residents to apply for a Utah drivers licence if they are living in Utah, and require them to take an eye exam disqualifying people who cannot see to a certain degree? Yes.

      So for things like hospital visitations, Utah should allow same sex married couples from out of state to visit their spouses with the same rights they give hetero married couples in hospitals.
      As for residents coming to live in Utah full time, laws can be crafted constitutionally that would prevent a same sex married couple from filing jointly on a Utah state income tax form, but it might require all married couples to apply for Utah marriage licences when they move into the state.

  4. Pingback: Homogamy tipping point: breaking the curve edition | Family Inequality

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