Tag Archives: occupations

What do doctors, lawyers, police, and librarians Google?

Now with college teachers!

What do doctors, lawyers, police, and librarians Google? I’ll tell you. But first — if you are going to take this too seriously, please stop now.

Data and Method

Using IPUMS to extract data from the 2010-2012 American Community Survey, I count the number of people ages 25-64, currently employed, in a given occupation. I divide that by each state’s population in that age range (excluding Washington DC from all analyses). I enter those numbers into the Google Correlate tool to see which searches are most highly correlated with the distribution of each occupation across states (the tool reports the top 100 most correlated searches). In other words, these are searches that maximize the difference between, for example, high-lawyer and low-lawyer states — searches that are relatively popular where there are a lot of lawyers, and relatively unpopular where there are not a lot of lawyers.

Is this what lawyers actually Google? We can’t know. But I think so. Or maybe what people who work in law firms do, or people who live with lawyers. It’s a very sensitive tool. I made this case first in the post, Stuff White People Google. Check that out if you’re skeptical.

For each occupation, I first offer a few highly correlated searches that support the idea that the data are capturing what these people search for. Then I list some of the interesting other hits from each list.

Results

Police

Police per adult

Police per adult

The map of police per adult looks pretty random, but the list of correlated search terms doesn’t. On the list are “security training,” “tsa jobs,” “waist belt,” “weight vest,” and “air marshals.”

After all the security stuff, the only major category left in the 100 searches most correlated with police in the population is women. Specifically, their search taste includes tough actress Rachel Ticotin, body builder Denise Masino, Brazilian actress Alice Braga, actress Rosario Dawson, and, “israeli women.” (Remember, Google suppresses known porn terms, so this is just what got through the filter.) It’s a leap from this data to the statement, “police search for images of these women,” but this is who they would find if that were the case (is this a “type”?):

policewomensearches

Librarians

Librarians per adult

Librarians per adult

On the other hand, librarians. They are the smallest occupation I tried: the average state population aged 25-64 is only one tenth of one percent librarians. Yet, their distribution leaves an unmistakable trace in the Google search patterns. It especially seems to pick up terms associated with public libraries. Correlated terms include, “cataloguing,” and “quiet hours.” And then there are terms one might ask a librarian about, classic reference-desk questions such as, “which vs that,” “turn off track changes,” “think tanks,” “9/11 commission,” and “irs form 6251″; and term paper topics like Shakespeare titles or “human development report.”

What about the librarians themselves, or those close to them? Could it be they who are searching for Ann Taylor dresses, Garnet Hill free shipping, Lands End home, and textile museums? We can’t know for sure. Of course, if anyone knows how to cover their search tracks, it might be this crowd.

Doctors

Doctors per adult

Doctors per adult

You know they’re doctors, because the search terms most correlated the map include “md, mph,” “md, phd,” “nejm,” “journal medicine,” “tedmed,” and “groopman.” What else do they like? Chic Corea, Tina Fey, Larry David, Mad Men (season 1) and The West Wing, Laura Linney, John Oliver, Scrabble 2-letter words, and a bunch of Jewish stuff.

Lawyers

Lawyers per adult

Lawyers per adult

That’s the map of lawyers per adult across states. Is it really lawyers? The top 100 searches correlated with the distribution shown above include “general counsel,” and then a lot of financial terms like, “world economic forum,” “international finance corporation,” and “economist intelligence.” Then there are international travel terms, like, “rate euro dollar,” “royal air,” and “swiss embassy.”

Looks like lawyers in lawyer-land are richer and more finance-oriented than lawyers in general. On the cultural side, they search for clothing terms Massimo Dutti, Hugo Boss, and Benetton. They apparently like to eat at Zafferano in London, and drink Caipirinhas. Also, they like “vissi,” which is an aria from Tosca but also a Cypriot celebrity; I lean toward the latter, because Queen Rania is also on the list. Finally, they combine their interests in law, finance, and wealthy attractive women by searching for Debrahlee Lorenzana, the “too-hot-for-work” banker.

By popular demand: Post-secondary teachers

postsecondaryperadult

Finally, here without comment are the results for “post-secondary teachers,” which includes any college teacher who didn’t instead specify a specialty, such as “psychologist” or “economist.” (It’s hard to see on the map, but Rhode Island is the highest.) I broke the results into four rough categories:

Academic

attribution
balderdash
bmi index
body image
citation style
cpdl
critical theory
debt to equity
debt to equity ratio
democracy in america
dihedral
economic inequality
economic statistics
economists
educause
edward elgar
effect size
email forward
equals sign
exogenous
feminists
google scholar
growth rates
homomorphism
inflation rate
inflation rates
intelligibility
international study
isomorphic
journal of
journal of nutrition
marginal propensity
marginal propensity to consume
mediating
meters per second
milieu
overlaying
piano sonata
prefrontal
prefrontal cortex
profile of
psychology studies
quick ratio
rejection letter
returns to scale
routledge
scholar
subgroup
superscript
transglutaminase
ways to end a letter

Personal

1% milk
2006 olympics
best pump up songs
crib safety
easy halloween costume
graco snug
handel
ipod history
jackson superbowl
janet jackson superbowl
mastermind game
maxim online
minesweeper
most popular names
napping
national sleep foundation
olympic figure skating
olympics 2006
pairs figure skating
positioning
refereeing
sandra boynton
senior hockey
snl clips
stuff magazine
stumbled upon
toilet training
verum

Musical

1812 overture
acapella group
acapella groups
africa toto
ave verum
for the longest time
it breaks my heart
pdq bach
taylor swift

Birth control

apri
apri birth control
aviane

Conclusions

Poor social scientists, generations of them spending their lives raising a few thousand dollars to ask a few thousand people a few hundred stilted, arbitrary survey questions. Meanwhile, coursing through the cable wires below their feet, and through the air around them, billions of data bits carry so much more potential information about so many more people, in so many intimate aspects of their lives, then we could even dream of getting our hands on. Just think of the power!

RingfrodoNote: I’ve done many posts like this. Some use time series instead of geographic variation, some use terms from Google Books ngrams. Browse the series under the Google tag, or check out this selection:

 

 

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Why are only 29% of NYTimes.com front page authors women?

In December I picked a moment to audit the gender composition of authors at the New York Times and Washington Post websites. Not many were women. Here’s a follow-up with more data.

For some context, according to the American Community Survey (IPUMS data extraction tool), there were about 55,000 “News Analysts, Reporters and Correspondents” working full-time, year-round in 2012. Of those, 41% were women. This pool of news writers is small compared with the number FTYR workers who report their college major was in journalism: about 315,000, of whom 53% are women. Lots of journalism majors work in other careers; lots of news writers weren’t journalism majors.

So, how will the premier newspaper in the country compare?

Methods

I stuck with NYTimes.com, and checked the gender composition of the bylines that appeared on the front page of the website just about every day between January 8 (the first day of their website redesign) and February 9, for 26 observations over 32 days. I checked whenever I thought of it, aiming for once a day and never more than once per calendar day. I excluded those in the “most-emailed” or “recommended for you” lists. I included Op-Eds and Opinion columnists if they were named (e.g., “Friedman: Israel’s Big Question”) but not if they weren’t (e.g., “Op-Ed Contributor: Czar Vladimir’s Illusions”). On average there were 16 bylines on the front page.

Someone — looking at you, Neal Caren — could scrape the site for all bylines, but in the absence of that I figured a simple rule was best. To check the gender of authors, I used my personal knowledge of common names, and when I wasn’t sure Googled the author’s photo and eyeballed it (all the authors I checked had a photo easily accessible). Overall, I counted 421 named authors (including duplicates, as when the same story was on the front page twice or the same author wrote again on a different day).

Results

Twenty-nine percent of the named authors were women (124 / 421). Women outnumbered men once (8-to-6), on February 8 at 2:35 AM. At the most extreme, men outnumbered women 18-to-1, at 8:12 AM on January 14.

Here are the details:

nytimes percent female authors.xlsx

Discussion

The New York Times is just one newspaper, and one employer, but it matters a lot, and the gender composition of the writers featured there is important. According to Alexa, NYTimes.com is the 34th most popular website in the U.S., and the 119th most popular in the world — and the most popular website of a printed newspaper in the U.S. In the JSTOR database of academic scholarship, “New York Times” appeared in 117,683 items in January 2014, 3.7-times more frequently than the next most-common newspaper, the Washington Post.

I don’t know the overall composition of New York Times writers, or their pool of applicants, or the process by which articles are selected for the website front page, so I can’t comment on how they end up with a lower female composition on the website than the national average for this occupation.

However, it is interesting to hold this up to the organizational research on how organization size and visibility affect gender inequality. Analyzing data from almost 300,000 workplaces over three decades, Matt Huffman, Jessica Pearlman and I found strong evidence that larger establishments are less gender segregated. To explain that, we wrote (with references removed for brevity):

Institutional research on organizational legitimacy implies that size promotes gender integration within establishments, because size increases both visibility to the public and government regulatory agencies and pressure to conform to societal expectations. Size is positively correlated with the formalization of personnel policies and other practices, and formalization is thought to reduce gender-based ascription by limiting managers’ discretion and subjectivity and holding decision makers accountable for their decisions.

The New York Times certainly is a high-visibility corporation, and the effects of its staffing practices are splashed all over its products through bylines and the masthead. In fact, maybe that visibility is to thank for the integration it has accomplished already. Of course it’s complicated; we also found that the gender of managers, firm growth, and other factors affect gender integration. Maybe to help figure this out someone should repeat this count over a longer time period to see how it’s changed, and how those changes correspond with other characteristics of the company and its social context.

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Percent female among bylined New York Times website authors, circa 3 p.m. on December 24, 2013

Now with the Washington Post from the next morning added…

New York Timesnyt-female-writers

The total is 36% female. The segregation score is .42, meaning 42% of men or women would have to switch sections to get an even gender distribution across sections. If that’s what you want.

Washington Post

wapo-female-writers

The total is 32% female and the segregation is .41. The grey couple appears pretty homophilous.

Note: Authors counted as many times as they appeared (e.g., if a piece appeared in more than one section, or they had two pieces in the same section).

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Gender devaluation, in one comparison

You can divide the reasons women earn less money than men do, on average, into three categories, in declining order or importance:

  1. Working fewer years, weeks, and hours
  2. Working in different occupations
  3. Being paid less in the same occupations

The first has to do with families and children. That has a large voluntary, or at least kind of voluntary, component (or it reflects hiring discrimination, which is hard to prove, prevent or punish under our legal regime). The third is illegal and sometimes actionable, as in the Lilly Ledbetter situation.

The second — occupational segregation — is a difficult hybrid. Segregation reflects both discrimination in hiring and promotions, and socialization-related choices, including in education. And it is wrapped up with divisions that may even be relatively harmless in a separate-but-equal kind of way — that is, not directly harmful, but contributing to the categorical divisions that make gender inequality more intractable. But the different pay in female- versus male-dominated occupations is a problem, well documented (see here and here) but virtually impossible to address under current law.

nurse-truck

Today’s example: nursing assistants versus light truck drivers

The government’s O*Net job classification system provides detailed descriptions of the qualifications, skills, and conditions of hundreds of occupations. The comparison between nursing assistants (1.5 million workers) and light truck or delivery services drivers (.9 million) is instructive for the question of gender composition. Using the 2009-2011 American Community Survey, I figure nursing assistants are 88% female, compared with 6% female for the light truck drivers. Here are some other facts:

  • The nursing assistants are better educated on average, with only 50% having no education beyond high school, compared with 67% of the light truck drivers.
  • But in terms of job skills, they are both in the O*Net “Job Zone Two,” with 3 months to 1 year of training “required by a typical worker to learn the techniques, acquire the information, and develop the facility needed for average performance in a specific job-worker situation.”
  • The O*Net reported median wage for 2012 was $11.74 for nursing assistants, compared with $14.13 for light truck drivers, so nursing assistants earn 83% of light truck drivers’ hourly earnings.

To make a stricter apples-to-apples comparison, I took those workers from the two occupations who fit these narrow criteria in 2009-2011:

  • Age 20-29
  • High school graduate with no further education
  • Employed 50-52 weeks in the previous year, with usual hours of exactly 40 per week
  • Never married, no children

This gave me 748 light truck drivers and 693 nursing assistants, with median annual earnings of $22,564 and $20,000, respectively — the light truck drivers earn 13% more. Why?

The typical argument for heavy truck drivers’ higher pay is that they spend a lot of time on the road away from home. But that’s not the case with the light truck drivers. They are more likely to work longer hours, but I restricted this comparison to 40-hour workers only. Here are comparisons of the O*Net database scores for abilities and conditions of the two jobs. For each I calculated score differences, so the qualities with bars above zero have higher scores for nursing assistants and those with bars below zero have higher scores for light truck drivers. See what you think (click to enlarge the figures). My comments are below.

abilities

context

You can stare at these lists and see which skills should be rewarded more, or which conditions compensated more. Or you could derive some formula based on the pay of the hundreds of occupations, to see which skills or conditions “the market” values more. But you will not be able to divine a fair market value for these differences that doesn’t have gender composition already baked into it. And “the market” doesn’t make this comparison directly, because nursing assistants and light truck drivers generally don’t work for the same employers or hire from the same labor pools. You might see reasons in these lists for why women choose one occupation and men choose the other, but I don’t see how that fairly leads to a pay difference.

The only solution I know of to the problem of unequal pay according to gender composition is government wage scales according to a “comparable worth” scheme (the subject of old books by Joan Acker and Paula England, but not high on the current political agenda). Under our current legal regime no one woman, or class of women, can successfully bring a suit to challenge this disparity.* That means occupational integration might be the best way to break this down.

*One exception to this is the public sector in Minnesota, in which local jurisdictions have their pay structures reviewed at regular intervals for evidence of gender bias, based on the required conditions and abilities of their jobs (as reported by me by Patricia Tanji of the Pay Equity Coalition of Minnesota).

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Choose that job?

This is a quick note following up on some posts about the gender gap in pay (like this one on long-hours workers, and this one on the use and abuse of the gender gap statistic).

One of the worst headlines I saw on these subjects was this one from a Time.com post: “The Pay Gap Is Not as Bad as You (and Sheryl Sandberg) Think. [Subhead:] Women don’t make 77 cents to a man’s dollar. They make more like 93 cents, as long as they don’t major in art history.”

I can appreciate a joke, but this just underscores how this debate over job “choice” is going on among the 28% of U.S. adults that have a bachelor’s degree or more. That bias shows up in the telltale use of “profession,” as in Hanna Rosin’s phrase, “Women congregate in different professions than men do, and the largely male professions tend to be higher-paying.” People who are scraping by in dead-end jobs aren’t “congregating in professions.”

In the language of economics, this may be expressed as, “differences in educational attainment, work experience and occupational choice contribute to the gender wage gap.”

Really?

Really?

Many of the critics of my NYTimes op-ed on gender inequality shared the view of “wmdawesrode”:

What about free choice? Nothing holds anyone of whatever gender from pursuing a career in whatever field they prefer.

Occupations

Technically, this comes down to how you handle the issue of occupations in employment data, and transitions between them. In a paper analyzing the job changes of nurses’ aides, Vanesa Ribas, Janet Dill and I found that for 30% of those who left the job, their next job was in an even worse-paid service job.

We looked at nurses’ aides because it is a poorly-paid job, disproportionately female, which employers fret over because of its high turnover rate. But there are hundreds of occupations in the federal statistical system. Some of them reflect career choices made by people with professional options (e.g., “economist” versus “sociologist”). But what about the 3.1 million workers who are “cashiers” versus the 3.1 million workers who are “first-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers.”? Treating this difference as an occupational choice, rather than as an unequal outcome, is iffy at best.

If you go to the IPUMS archive of Current Population Survey data, you can experiment with this using the “occ” (what is your occupation now?) versus “occly” (what was your occupation last year?) questions. For example, to see what those retail sales supervisors and managers were doing last year, fill out the online analysis window like this:

occoccly

And you will find the major feeder occupations were (in descending order):

For women:

  1. First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers
  2. Cashiers
  3. Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing
  4. Customer service representatives
  5. Food service managers

For men:

  1. First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers
  2. Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing
  3. Marketing and sales managers
  4. Retail salespersons
  5. Driver/sales workers and truck drivers

It looks to me like some of those people were making lateral moves in pursuit of career dreams (e.g., from non-retail to retail sale manager), but for most of them the job is a promotion. (I pooled 10 years of data because the numbers for these are pretty small, since there are so many occupations, and the vast majority of people don’t change jobs each year).

If you look through the list of occupations, many of them reflect hierarchies in vertical career paths. This is empirically observable, but analyzing it systematically requires a creative approach I haven’t figured out (but maybe someone else has).

Of course, a gender disparity in rates of transitioning from cashier to supervisor isn’t necessarily employer discrimination. Some people, for example, have family obligations (“choices”) that make them less dedicated workers and legitimately less desirable for promotion. The gender system is complicated. If fathers are more likely to move out when their children have disabilities, as suggested by data on living arrangements, then single mothers whose children have disabilities might have a tough time giving 110% to their cashier jobs — to get that promotion at Wal-Mart. And then Hanna Rosin would catch them congregating in the less lucrative professions.

 

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Gender Gap Statistic Gets it from All Sides

I was very happy to write this post for the Gender & Society blog, where it first appeared.

The “gender gap” has gotten a lot of attention this fall. This hard-working statistic is as often abused and attacked by antifeminists as it is misused and misunderstood by those sympathetic to feminism. But it is good for one thing: information.

The statistic is released each year with the U.S. Census Bureau’s income and poverty report. This year they reported 2012 annual earnings as recorded in the March 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS): the median earnings of full-time, year-round working women ($37,791) was 76.5% of men’s ($49,398). That is the source of (accurate) statements such as, “Women still earned only 77 cents for every dollar that men earned in 2012.”

In the category of reading too much into a single number, I put this data brieffrom the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, which helpfully informed us that, “Most Women Working Today Will Not See Equal Pay during their Working Lives.” Here is the chart:

Cohen_image1

Of course, real life projections are not usually made by simply extending a trend with a straight line. The future is not that easy to foresee. If you did want to fit a line to that trend, however, the bad news is that it’s not a straight line that fits, but a third-order polynomial (which improves the measure of fit from .90 to .98). And projected this way, the trend will never reach equality:

Cohen_image2

Fortunately, curvy lines are often no better at predicting the future than straight ones.

Flog that stat

Some defenders of equal pay for women misstate the statistic, as President Bill Clinton did when he said:

“How would you like to show up for work every day, but only get to take home three out of every four paychecks? … if you get paid 75 percent for the same kind of work, it’s as if you were only picking up three paychecks, instead of four, in four pay periods. The average woman has to work, therefore, an extra 17 weeks a year to earn what a similarly-qualified man in the same kind of job makes.”

The mistake here is that he said “same kind of work” and “similarly-qualified man.” That led to the screaming headline on the American Enterprise Institute website, “Still Hyping the Phony Pay Gap.”

But he also went on to say:

“Yes, some of this can be explained — by differences in education, experience and occupation. But even after you make all those adjustments, there is still a very significant gap.”

So he belatedly acknowledged the complexities, and that second statement is true.

Oh, and that exchange occurred in 2000. How far we’ve come.

When Clinton, ever a repository for handy statistics, essentially repeated his statement on September 29 of this year, he played right into the screaming headlines of today’s anti-feminists, including Hanna Rosin, who declared, “I feel the need to set the record straight” in a piece she titled, “The Gender Gap Lie.” Kay Hymowitz also has written extensively to debunk the gender gap, arguing that it mostly results from women’s choices – the educations and occupations they choose, the hours they choose, the “mommy track” they prefer. (Naturally, sociologists are very interested in that construction of “choice.”)

There is no single number that can tell us the true state of gender inequality. But if you had to pick one, this one is pretty good. That’s because it combines factors that affect employment levels, work experience, occupational distributions, and pay discrimination – to give a sense of the place of the typical worker. As long as that number is not zero, there is a gender inequality problem to discuss, whether it results from socialization, family demands, educational sorting and tracking, hiring and promotion discrimination, or pay discrimination – and the details depend on further scrutiny.

Take your pick

We could use a different gender gap. The next figure shows some gender gaps for earnings among full-time, full-year workers in the 2011 American Community Survey (ACS). I’ve cut the sample to compare men and women by education, long-hours status (50+ hours), parenthood (no co-residential children) and marital status (never married). As you can see, the gaps range from a low of 65% for women with an MA degree and no children all the way up to 93% for never-married professional degree or PhD holders with no kids. Generally, the 50-hour limit doesn’t help, but marriage and children make a big difference.Cohen_image3

Another way of restricting the data to consider real-world gaps is shown in the next figure. Here, from the same data, I’ve taken full-time, full-year workers who have a bachelor’s degree and no further education, and sorted them by college major. So these gaps account for educational specialization, and reflect – in addition to any hiring and pay discrimination – occupational sorting within those categories, as well as other educational processes such as university prestige and school performance. The gaps range from 69% for transportation science majors all the way up to 94% for architecture majors.

Cohen_image4

Finally, we might look more closely at occupations. In this figure, again from the 2011 ACS, I have sorted 484 detailed occupational categories according to the median earnings wage gap within them, for full-time, year-round workers. The y-axis shows the cumulative percentage of women who work at or below each level as you move from less equal occupations on the left to more equal ones on the right. I’ve labeled the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile, showing, for example, that half of women work in occupations with a wage gap of 83% or worse.Cohen_image5

Although this figure shows inequality within occupations, it is occupational segregation itself, which extends the gender division of labor into the labor market, that lies behind much of the gender gap – representing the culmination of historical and contemporary processes of allocating people to tasks.

In summary, the wage gap clearly is smaller in some situations than others – smaller for workers without children, especially if they’re never married, smaller for some college majors and in some occupations. Each of these comparisons tells us something different. (More complete statistical analysesthat control for several factors at once create counterfactuals that don’t actually exist, but that do help us isolate important dynamics behind the gender gap.)

We mustn’t read into these numbers more than they can tell us. None of the numbers I’ve shown can discern occupational choice from employer discrimination, for example; or the cumulative effects of time out of the labor force versus discrimination in previous jobs. But the gender gap numbers are measures of inequality. And as long as we are accurate and responsible in our use of these numbers, they are useful sources of information.

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De-Sexing the Labor Market, 1965 edition

In Stephanie Coontz’s excellent book A Strange Stirring: The Feminine Mystique and American Women at the Dawn of the 1960s – which is a history of The Feminine Mystique and much more than that — she references this New York Times editorial from 1965 and I had to look it up.

Here it is, as it appeared on August 21 of that year, as the federal government was dragging its feet on enforcing the sex discrimination provision of the Civil Rights Act and newspapers everywhere still had sex-segregated Help Wanted ads (click to enlarge; the text is below the image):

PowerPoint Presentation

 

New York Times, Editorial: August 21, 1965. p. 20

De-Sexing the Job Market

Federal officials wrestling with the problem of enforcing the ban on discrimination in employment for reasons of sex, under the Civil Rights Act of 1964, may find it would have been better if Congress had just abolished sex itself. For reasons of simplification they have gathered many problems into one — what they call “the bunny problem.” It is posed by the quandary of how you rule if a man applies for a job as “bunny” in a Play­boy club. Presumably a male bunny could sell liquor, as the bunnies are supposed to do, but how would ho look to the customers, and would the customers look at him? And what would happen to sales? But the problem is bigger than that. In fact, it may be bigger than any of us. It demands a wholesale rewriting of the language, for one thing. Everything has to be neuterized. Housemaid becomes a dirty word; it is, of course, discriminatory. Handyman must disappear from the language; he was pretty much a goner anyway, if you ever started looking for one in desperation. No more milkman, iceman, serviceman, foreman or pressman. It is not the males alone, however, who lose their past supremacy and distinction. The hostess must yield to de-sexed progress. A maid can now become a man. Girl Friday is an intolerable offense. Sales­lady is forbidden. The Rockettes may become bi-sexual, and a pity, too. The classic beginning of many wondrous careers in the Horatio Alger fashion — Boy Wanted — has reached its last chapter. Help Wanted-Female and Help Wanted-Male, in the classified columns, may now become one big jackpot. Bunny problem, indeed! This is revolution, chaos. You can’t even safely advertise for a wife any more.

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OK, how about the gender gap, within occupations, for people working 50+ hours?

I haven’t had time to write something substantial on this, but I took the time to make this figure so I may as well post it.

Hanna Rosin wrote a blog post in Slate called “The Gender Gap Lie,” boldly proclaiming, “I feel the need to set the record straight,” before summarizing a June 2012 PolitiFact piece on the Obama 2012 ad which said: “President Obama knows that Women being paid 77 cents on the dollar for doing the same work as men isn’t just unfair, it hurts families.”

It turns out, not surprisingly, there are many pieces debunking the misleading use of the gender wage gap statistic, like this one by Kay Hymowitz and this one by Ruth David Konigsberg, with the absurdly offensive sub-head: “Women don’t make 77 cents to a man’s dollar. They make more like 93 cents, as long as they don’t major in art history.” Newsflash: most employed women didn’t major in anything because they didn’t go to college (67% don’t have college degrees!), which also speaks to Rosin’s favorite “apples-to-apples comparison,” the study about University of Chicago MBAs.

Just to be clear: the 77 cents on the dollar statistic (and its variations) is based on all people working full time. It is not a measure of pay discrimination “for the same work.” It is a measure of gender inequality. The correct, non-lie way to describe this fact is modeled by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research: “in 2011, female full-time workers made only 77 cents for every dollar earned by men.” Calling that lie is a lie. Not all inequality is discrimination, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a problem.

Occupations are one thing, that is, why “women” insist on majoring in art history before choosing careers as hotel maids instead of CEOs. Another is hours at work, always an issue in wage-gap debunkery. Men work more hours, on average, so they should get paid more, says the anti-lie crowd.

Fair enough, by the rules of our game. To help inform on that issue, I made this figure. It shows the occupations with the most people usually working 50 hours per week or more among those who worked 50 weeks or more in the previous year.

50-plus-hours-occs-earnsSource: My calculations from the 2011 American Community Survey, extracted from IPUMS.

The pink and blue bars show the median annual earnings of workers who put in an average of 50+ hours per week last year, and worked 50 weeks or more. The dots show women’s median as percentage of men’s. You can see that in two occupations — non-retail sales supervisors and human resource workers — women actually earn more than men on average. In some the gender gap is quite large. For example, among doctors working 50+ hours per week, women only earn 54% of men’s median earnings (so the gap doesn’t just result from surgeons working longer hours than pediatricians, I guess). Also, note that the 50-hour crowd are not all in high-status professional jobs where high earnings drive career choices — those women home health aides are making $11 per hour.

Overall, in these 25 occupations, the earnings gap for people working 50+ hours 50+ weeks is 83%. So, the Twitter version: Within occupations, among those working extra-long hours, women earn 83% of what men earn.

Even though these aren’t side-by-side wage gaps (e.g., two janitors working the same shift at the same workplace, with the same performance evaluations and work experience), you could justifiably call this “the same work” if you acknowledge there are different career tracks and working conditions contributing to this gap. That is, surgeons and pediatricians have the same degrees even if they have different specialty training and skills; they are doing varieties of the same work. You could also dispute that, or clarify it (likewise, among truck drivers, people operating different equipment have different skills).

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More Women Are Doctors and Lawyers Than Ever—but Progress Is Stalling

Originally posted on The Atlantic.

In the Wall Street Journal last week, Josh Mitchell reported that “Women account for a third of the nation’s lawyers and doctors, a major shift from a generation ago.” The report was triggered by anew analysis of occupations from the Census Bureau, which showed women increased their share of doctor and lawyer by four percent and six percent, respectively, from a decade earlier.

These professional advances mark “very significant progress,” according to feminist economist Heidi Hartmann, and I don’t disagree. Still, when I spoke to Mitchell I suggested he consider a glass-half-empty perspective, which somehow ended up on the cutting-room floor.

My question is, will progress continue? It doesn’t look good. I happen to be a demographer, but you don’t need to be one to see that progress for women in these fields is stalling.

First, look at the degrees earned. This figure uses statistics from the Department of Education and breaks the gender trend in law and medical degrees up by decades. Both trends show slowing progress—a smaller increase in women’s representation each decade—and both peaked (for now) at just under 50 percent female.

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If half of new doctors and lawyers are women, eventually it should be possible to have professions that are gender-balanced. But don’t hold your breath.

I looked at today’s doctors and lawyers using the 2008-2010 American Community Survey (you can get the data here). Here is the representation of women among full-time and year-round working doctors and lawyers by age. Half of the youngest doctors and lawyers are women, while only one in eight of the oldest are. So as they all age, equal representation should be on the way.

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But women are much more likely to drop out of these professions (and others). Among early-career professionals—people ages 25 to 44—who list their most recent jobs as doctor or lawyer, you can see that women are much more likely to be out of the labor force:

cohen_doctorlawyer3.png

With the kind of dropout rates that produce these disparities, we would need much more than 50 percent female in the graduating classes to reach equal representation in these professions.

In Mitchell’s report, the economist Claudia Goldin, who has recently investigated women’s success as pharmacists, argues that the corporatization of medicine has helped women by introducing the concept of work-family balance, and reducing the gender earnings gap—all changes that helped women in pharmacies as well. But I don’t see the evidence that such practices have yet changed the medical industry enough to reduce the gender differences in drop-out rates. And the research evidence shows that explicit diversity policies—with teeth—often are necessary to break the logjam.

And Mitchell’s story did not mention any efforts to reduce the segregation of men and women—especially in medicine—into different specialties. That segregation is a big part of what drives the earnings gap among doctors and lawyers. Here are the median earnings by age for doctors and lawyers, from the same source:

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At the peak of that curve—ages 45 to 50—female doctors are earning just 62 percent of men’s median earnings. As they make their decisions about whether to enter the field, and how to specialize, and how to handle their family demands and opportunities, these disparities in representation and rewards come into play. The decisions men and women in these professions make should never be seen as free choices unconstrained or unaffected by the institutional environment.

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Women’s Economic Dominance: Is It Really Inevitable?

Originally published at TheAtlantic.com.

Both Liza Mundy (The Richer Sex) and Hanna Rosin (The End of Men) argue that the transition to a postindustrial, service- and knowledge-based economy—in conjunction with declining gender discrimination—are leading inevitably to women’s economic dominance. I have critiqued those stories in a series of posts on my site Family Inequality.

But there is one piece of Mundy and Rosin’s argument I haven’t questioned until now. It is so intuitively appealing that I assumed it was true: The demands of the economy are shifting dramatically in women’s favor. Brains have superseded brawn and social skills have become increasingly important, they both claim (and I accepted without thinking much about it) which all favors women over men.

Mundy and Rosin make frequent references to a set of projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), showing that the occupations with the largest expected growth are dominated by women rather than men. But that description is, it turns out, misleading.

Occupations Projected

First, here is how Mundy and Rosin use the BLS numbers. Mundy writes:

Projections made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that women’s occupations will be favored in the next decade. … All in all, of the ten jobs with the largest projected job growth—nurses, home health aides, customer service reps, food preparation and serving workers, home care aides, retail sales, office clerks, accountants and auditors, nursing units, and postsecondary teachers—nine are majority female.

Rosin uses similar statistics, which have been repeated in reviews like this one in the Chicago Tribune, this one in the Globe and Mail, and blogs like this one at the World Bank. She writes (in a passage approvingly quoted by David Brooks):

The recession merely revealed—and accelerated—a profound economic shift that has been going on for at least 30 years, and in some respects even longer…. Of the fifteen job categories projected to grow the most in the United States over the next decade, twelve are occupied primarily by women.

Okay, here’s the first moment I should have paused. Women are almost half the labor force. So if occupations are “majority female” or “dominated” by women, how different are they from average? Does this really mean the occupational structure really strongly shifting in women’s favor?

The BLS projections are detailed here. They include hundreds of occupations, but they also summarize this pattern for 22 “major occupation groups,” which range in size from 1 million to 23 million workers. I added in the gender composition of each group to show the relationship between gender composition and projected growth.

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As you can see, the female-dominated occupations are projected to grow fastest. For dramatic effect, one might point to the top-right point: healthcare support occupations are 87 percent female and projected to grow 35 percent over the decade. On the other hand there are production occupations: 26 percent female and aiming for a paltry four percent growth. But that would be cherry-picking examples. What the sophisticated reader really wants to know is the overall relationship between gender and job growth. And that is not what it appears.

Here is the same graph, but with the occupation groups shown in proportion to thethe number of workers they represent, and the trendline redrawn to reflect their disparate weights.

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Now the picture is much different. That giant dot on the lower right is 23 million office and administrative support workers – 72 percent female and growing slowly. And near the middle are three large occupation groups that are 40 to 50 percent female, also growing slowly (sales, food preparation and serving, and management). The gender action is all in the occupations that employ a smaller number of people. The big story about growth and gender composition of major occupation groups is not true. (In technical terms, the slope of that line in the first figure is reduced by half when we account for the size of the dots. And in fact the slope would be cut in half again if we just dropped the healthcare support occupations point, which exerts outsized influence as an outlier.)

So how do Mundy and Rosin come up with the dramatic lists of occupations projected to grow the most? The top 10 growing occupations (at the detailed level) are mostly female-dominated. But those occupations made up just 15 percent of the workforce in 2010, and are projected to make up only 17 percent by 2020. The top 15 are projected to increase from 22 percent to just 23 percent of the workforce. The growth in these jobs just doesn’t represent that much of a change for the entire economy.

If occupations aren’t really shifting in women’s directions anymore, we shouldn’t be surprised. In 2001, analyzing occupational trends of the 20th century, David Cotter, Joan Hermsen and Reeve Vanneman concluded:

Change in the occupational structure is not responsible for the continued growth in women’s labor force participation after 1970. That is, it is not the growth of traditionally female occupations that is driving the continuing growth in women’s labor force participation rates in the 1970s and 1980s.

Rather, it was – and still is – the growth of integrated middle-class occupations, and women moving into new occupations, that provide the impetus for women’s increased labor force share. Hard as it is to believe, the overall shift toward traditionally female-typed occupations largely ended by the 1970s. Yes, there are more nurses and home health aides today than there were then, but there are also fewer maids and domestic servants. And although blue-collar manufacturing jobs have continued to decline, truck-driving and construction have not. (I extended their trend through 2010 to check whether this is still true. Women’s share of the labor force would have increased from 38 percent in 1970 only to 41 percent in 2010 based on occupational shifts alone, if the gender composition of each occupation hadn’t changed. That means about 70 percent of the increase in women’s share of the labor force came from occupations becoming more integrated instead of occupations growing and shrinking.)

In other places in her book, Rosin presses the ongoing structural change in the economy in terms of industries (what firms make) instead of occupations (what workers do). Here she is on slightly firmer ground. She writes:

Since 2000, the manufacturing economy has lost almost 6 million jobs… During the same period, meanwhile, health and education have added about the same number of jobs. But those sectors continue to be heavily dominated by women, while the men concentrate themselves more than ever in industries—construction, transportation, and utilities—that are fading away.

In one respect here, Rosin is exaggerating: She is referring to 4.5 million as “about the same number” as 5.7 million. And construction, transportation, and utilities, rather than “fading away,” in fact are togetherprojected to produce 2.7 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020, a 26 percent increase.

But she nevertheless makes a true and important point: Those masculinist industries are growing slower than education and health services, which are projected to add 6.5 jobs, a 33 percent increase. During the next decade, BLS projects education and health will grow from 15 percent to 17 percent of the workforce. But outside of that group, there is no relationship between gender and projected growth. Here is the chart:

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The blue line shows the relationship with education and health services included—big dots out on the edges have a huge influence on the trend. If you exclude that you get the pink line. Manufacturing is shrinking, but it’s already only nine percent of workers, and shrinking to eight percent by 2020. Most of the employment growth is in the integrated industries: retail trade, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government—which affect men’s and women’s employment. Health and education growth are a big part of our expected future, but they’re not the whole economy.

Conclusion

Overall, you might be surprised to learn—I know I was—that women are projected to increase their share of the labor force from 46.7 percent in 2010 only to 47.0 percent in 2020. That’s it: less than one percent. How can that be? So many people are so attached to this narrative of women’s rapid advance that they haven’t noticed there has been no advance in the last 17 years: Women have occupied between 46 percent and 47 percent of the labor force every year between 1994 and 2011.

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This stagnation itself complicates a big part of Rosin’s and Mundy’s narratives. The continuous—and fast—pace of change is why they argue that we are heading not just toward equality but beyond it, to female domination. As Rosin writes:

Yes, the United States and many other countries still have a gender wage gap. Yes, women still do most of the childcare. And yes, the upper reaches of power are still dominated by men. But given the sheer velocity of the economic and other forces at work, these circumstances are much more likely the last artifacts of a vanishing age rather than a permanent figuration.

And, after several paragraphs of statistics comparing the present mostly to the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, Mundy concludes: “Given these trends, it is only a matter of time before a majority of working wives outearn their husbands.”

But the reality is that it is not only a matter of time. The ostensibly gender-neutral processes of economic transformation are not the source of women’s progress they once were. And that’s the real danger in their stories: creating the impression that women’s progress is inevitable and unstoppable.

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