Marriage and gender inequality in 124 countries

Countries with higher levels of marriage have higher levels of gender inequality. This isn’t a major discovery, but I don’t remember seeing this illustrated before, so I decided to do it. Plus I’m trying to improve my Stata graphing.

I used data from this U.N. report on marriage rates from 2008, restricted to those countries that had data from 2000 or later. To show marriage rates I used the percentage of women ages 30-34 that are currently married. This is thus a combination of marriage prevalence and marriage timing, which is something like the amount of marriage in the country. I got gender inequality from the U.N. Development Programme’s Human Development Report for 2015. The gender inequality index combines the maternal mortality ratio, the adolescent birth rate, the representation of women in the national parliament, the gender gap in secondary education, and the gender gap in labor market participation.

Here is the result. I labeled countries with 49 million population or more in red; a few interesting outliers are also labeled. The line is quadratic, unweighted for population (click to enlarge).

You can see the USA sliding right down that curve toward gender nirvana (not that I’m making a simplistic causal argument).

Note that India and China together are about 36% of the world’s population. They both have nearly universal marriage by age 30-34, but women in China get married about four years later on average. That’s an important part of why China has lower gender inequality (it goes along with more educational access, higher employment levels, politics, history, etc.). China is a major outlier among universal-marriage countries, while India is right on the curve.

Any cross-national comparison has to handle this issue. China is 139-times bigger than Sweden. One way to address it is to weight the points by their relative population sizes. If you do that it actually doesn’t change the result much, except for China, which in this cases changes everything because in addition to being huge they broke the relationship between marriage and gender inequality. Here is the comparison. Now the dots are scaled for population, and the gray line is fit to all the countries except China, while the red line includes China (click to enlarge).

My conclusion is that the gray line is the basic story — more marriage, more gender inequality — with China as an important exception, but that’s up for interpretation.

I put the data and the code for making the charts in this directory. Feel free to copy and crib, etc.

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Marriage promotion snake oil tour

W. Bradford Wilcox is in Oklahoma today, lecturing on the benefits of marriage promotion for an anti-abortion activist group. His speech was previewed in an op-ed in the Oklahoman. (It’s fitting that this comes up the day after my post about promoting your research — I never said your research was good.)

Just briefly, here are two of the claims, with the QBD™ (QuickBradDebunk).

He wrote:

“Strong Families, Prosperous States,” a report I recently coauthored, found that states with more families headed by married parents enjoyed significantly higher levels of economic growth, family median income, and less child poverty, compared with states with fewer married-parent families. Indeed, if Oklahoma enjoyed its 1980-levels of married parenthood, its per capita GDP would be 2.5 percent higher, its median family income would be 5.6 percent higher, and its child poverty rate would be 8.5 percent lower.

Indeed. I wrote about that deeply ridiculous report in this post last fall. This just adds a wrinkle. Even if that research were reasonable, which it definitely isn’t, this kind of statement is completely misleading. It’s fine to illustrate a regression coefficient with a statement about the magnitude of the coefficient, as in, “for every year of history, net of other factors, the marriage rate declined X%.” But when you’re describing a trend over time it is not reasonable to say that rolling back a single variable would actually create that effect. Nothing really works that way, and any statement isolating a regression coefficient like that needs to make explicit that it is a counterfactual illustration of an effect size, not an actual statement about what “would” happen.

More extremely fraudulent, however, is this one:

The state should continue supporting the Oklahoma Marriage Initiative. The initiative is one of the bright spots on the state’s family landscape, as its programs have been shown to increase the quality and stability of family life among lower-income Sooner families. Indeed, one study found that OMI was responsible for a 3-percentage-point increase in the share of Sooner children living with two parents.

Indeed. Thorough research on this marriage promotion program puts the lie to this exaggeration. Yes, some of the local results from this program showed very small relationship improvements to program participants. These results did not include increases in marriage, which is what most people think of when a “marriage scholar” (from the headline of the piece) refers to “quality and stability of family life.” And readers can be excused for thinking he was talking about marriage if they read the next sentence, which refers to an increase in “the share of Sooner children living with two parents.”

That last claim is unsourced, but I think it might come from the study that I debunked here. They found that states with higher marriage promotion funding, in some years, had a higher proportion of children living with two parents. Wow. Except when they removed Washington, D.C. the effect was gone. I’m not kidding about this; it’s all in the post. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that is where he gets the claim that marriage promotion worked in Oklahoma. (Read all about Oklahoma’s marriage promotion program in Melanie Heath’s excellent book, One Marriage Under God.)

In any event, this certainly doesn’t reflect what actually happened in Oklahoma, which is that the proportion of families with children headed by married couples continued to fall throughout the marriage promotion period, actually declining faster than the national average. Here are the trends, using data from the American Community Survey via IPUMS.org.

wbwok-fig2

Wilcox may have some legalistic defense of this claim. But he knows that it is not true, and that it will be misunderstood and misused by his credulous audience. In fact, based on the template of this op-ed, Wilcox could literally go to every state and tell them that marriage promotion increased the rate at which children live with two parents, because every state had greater-than-zero funding. Even as marriage has declined in every state. Regression!

Such a tour would not be unprecedented in America, of course. The original snake oil salesmen took something that was actually good — the fatty oils used by Chinese immigrants — and turned it into a bogus miracle cure peddled by American hucksters to gullible consumers. This is the modern bureaucratic update to that hoax, funded with more than a billion dollars of welfare money and peddled through think tanks and academic journals.

Marriage promotion does not die, it is undead, requiring none of the material sustenance upon which mortal movements rely (such as facts or evidence of effectiveness). Lakshmi Gandhi’s piece on snake oil is fitting:

playwright Eugene O’Neill referred to snake oil in his 1956 play The Iceman Cometh, when a character suggested that a rival was “standing on a street corner in hell right now, making suckers of the damned, telling them there’s nothing like snake oil for a bad burn.”

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Basic self promotion

your work

If you don’t care enough to promote your research, how can you expect others to?

These are some basic thoughts for academics promoting their research. You don’t have to be a full-time self-promoter to improve your reach and impact, but the options are daunting and I often hear people say they don’t have time to do things like run a Twitter account or write blogs. Even a relatively small effort, if well directed, can help a lot. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. It’s fine to do some things pretty well even if you can’t do everything to your ideal standard.

It’s all about making your research better — better quality, better impact. You want more people to read and appreciate your work, not just because you want fame and fortune, but because that’s what the work is for. I welcome your comments and suggestions below. 

Present yourself

Make a decent personal website and keep it up to date with information about your research, including links to accessible copies of your publications (see below). It doesn’t have to be fancy (I have a vested interest in keeping standards low in that department). I’m often surprised at how man  people are sitting behind years-old websites. 

Very often people who come across your research somewhere else will want to know more about you before they share, report on, or even cite it. Your website gives your work more credibility. Has this person published other work in this area? Taught related courses? Gotten grants? These are things people look for. It’s not vain or obnoxious to present this information, it’s your job. I recommend a good quality photo (others disagree).

Make your work available

Let people read the actual research. Publishing in open-access journals is ideal, because it’s the right thing to do and more people can read it. (My recent article in Sociological Science was downloaded several hundred times within 10 days, which is much more than I would expect from a paywalled journal.)

Whether or not you do that, share your working paper or preprint versions. This is best done in your university repository (ask your library) or public disciplinary archive. (For prominent examples, check out the University of California’s has eScholarship or Harvard’s DASH; I use the working paper site of the Maryland Population Research Center, which is run by UCLA.) If you put them on your own university website, that will allow them to show up in web searches (including Google Scholar), but they won’t be properly tagged and indexed for things like citation or grant analysis, or archived — so it’s better just to put links on your website. But don’t just link to the pay-walled version, that’s the click of death for someone just browsing around. 

Don’t be intimidated by copyright. You can almost always put up a preprint without violating any agreement (ideally you wouldn’t publish anywhere that makes you take it down afterwards), and even if you have to take it down eventually you get months or years to share it first. No one will sue you or fire you — the worst outcome is being asked to take it down, which is very rare. Don’t prioritize protecting the journal’s proprietary right to promotion over serving the public (and your career) by getting the research out there, as soon as it’s ready. To see the policies of different journals regarding self-archiving, check out the simple database at SHERPA/RoMEO.

I oppose private sites like Academia.edu and ResearchGate. These are just private companies doing what your university and its library are already doing for the public. Your paper will not be discovered more if it is on one of these sites. It will show up in a Google search if you put it on your website or, better, in a public repository.

I’m not an open access purist, at least for sociology. If you got public money to develop a cure for cancer, that’s different. For us, not everything has to be open access (books, for example), but the more it is the better, especially original research. Anyway, it would be great if sociology got more into open science (for example, with the Open Science Framework). People for whom code is big already use sites like GitHub for sharing, which is beyond me; in your neck of the woods that can be great for getting your work out, too.

Share your work

In the old days we used to order paper reprints of papers we published and literally mail them to the famous and important people we hoped would read and cite them. Nowadays you can email them a PDF. Sending a short note that says, “I thought you might be interested in this paper I wrote” is normal, reasonable, and may be considered flattering. (As long as you don’t follow up with repeated emails asking if they’ve read it yet.)

Social media

I recommend at least basic social media, Twitter and Facebook. This does not require a massive time commitment — you can always ignore them. Setting up a public profile on Twitter or a page on Facebook gives people who do use them all the time a way to link to you and share your profile. If someone wants to show their friends one of my papers on Twitter, this doesn’t require any effort on my part. They tweet, “Look at this awesome new paper @familyunequal wrote!” When people click on the link they go to my profile, which tells them who I am and links to my website. I do not have to spend time on Twitter for this to work. (I chose @familyunequal because familyinequality was too long and I didn’t want to use my name because I was determined not to use Twitter for personal stuff. I think something closest to your name is ideal, but don’t not do this because you can’t think of the perfect handle.)

Of course, an active social media presence does help draw people into your work. But even low-level attention will help: posting or tweeting links to new papers, conference presentations, other writing, etc. No need to get into snarky chitchat and following hundreds of people if you don’t want to.

To see how others are using Twitter, you can visit the list I maintain, which has more than 600 sociologists. This is useful for comparing profile and feed styles.

Other writing

People who write popular books go on book tours to promote them. People who write minor articles in sociology might send out some tweets, or share them with their friends on Facebook. In between are lots of other places you can write something to help people find and learn about your work. I recommend blogging, but that can be done different ways.

As with publications themselves, there are public and private options, and I’m not a purist. (Some of my blog posts at the Atlantic, for which I used to get paid a little, were literally sponsored by Exxon, which I didn’t notice at first because I only looked at the site with my ad-blocker on.) But again public usually works better in addition to feeling better.

There are some good organizations now that help people get their work out. In my area, for example, the Council on Contemporary Families is great (I’m on their board), producing research briefs related to new publications, and helping to bring them to the attention of journalists and editors. Others work with the Scholars Strategy Network, which helps people place Op-Eds, or others. The great non-profit site The Society Pages includes lots of avenues for writing about your research. In addition, there are blogs run by sections of the American Sociological Association (like Work in Progress, from the Organizations, Occupations, and Work section) or other professional associations, and various group blogs.

And there is Contexts (of which I’m co-editor), the general interest magazine of ASA, where we would love to hear proposals for how you can bring your research out into the open (for the magazine or our blog).

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Family Inequality week in review

Some things I read, shared, or came across this week.

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When the map says race but all you can talk about is fatherhood

Raj Chetty and colleagues have a new paper showing that “childhood environments play an important role in shaping gender gaps in adulthood.” Essentially, boys from poor or or single parents are doing worse. Also, this gender difference is greater in Black and poor places.

The tricky thing with this data, and I don’t blame Chetty et al. for this, although I would like them to say more about it, is that they don’t know the race of the children. The data are from tax records, which allow you to know the income and marital status of the parents, but not the race. But they know where they grew up. So if they have a strong effect of the racial composition of the county kids grow up in, but they don’t know the race of the kids, you have to figure a big part of that is race of the kids — and by “you” I mean someone who knows anything about America.

So here’s their map of the gender difference in employment rates associated with having poor parents:

chetmap

To help make the point, here is their list of local areas at the top and bottom of the map:

chettab

I hope that is enough to make the point for the demographically literate reader.

I credit them in this paper for at least using percent Black as a variable, which they oddly omitted from a previous analysis. This allows the careful reader to see that this is the most important local-area variable — which makes perfect sense because it is doing the work of the individual data, which doesn’t include race.

racechettyeffects

Wow!

It’s important that these examples are all about employment rates. We know that the penalty for being a Black man is especially large for employment, partly because of the direct effects of mass incarceration, but also because of discrimination, some of which is directly related to incarceration and the rest of which may be affected by its aura. This is not something we measure well. Our employment reporting system does not include prison records. Prisoners are excluded from the Current Population Survey, but then included when they are released. So they show up as jobless (mostly) men.

Whenever you see something about how race affects poor men, you have to think hard about what incarceration is doing there — we can’t just rely on the data in front of us and assume it’s telling the whole story, when we know there is a massive influence not captured in the data.

This is exactly what marriage promoters delight in doing. I give just one example, a blog post by the Brookings Institution’s Richard Reeves, which — amazingly, astoundingly, remarkably, disappointingly, not surprisingly — discusses the effect of growing up poor and “less-educated” in Baltimore (Baltimore!) without once mentioning race or incarceration. Instead, he goes right to this:

Wanted: Fathers

Of course, there is much more to being a man than money: in fact, to define masculinity in breadwinning terms alone is a fatal move. As Barack Obama said on Fathers’ Day seven years ago, fathers are “teachers and coaches. They are mentors and role models.” But as he also said, “too many fathers are missing—missing from too many lives and too many homes.” In its poorest neighborhoods, America faces a fathering deficit, one that will make it even harder for the boys of today to make it as men in the new world.

Fatherhood is important. You could investigate a fathering deficit, but if you really cared about it you want to look at in the context of well-known, massive causes of harm to Black boys in America, chief among them racism and mass incarceration.

 

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The things I read (7 days a storm edition)

I’m writing a book for the next few months, and putting less of the original content I’m (still!) generating on the blog, for now. To help pass the time, I figured I’d post periodic link roundups of things I read and shared or discussed briefly elsewhere (mostly at @familyunequal on Twitter). Feel free to share your own suggestions or comments below.

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Family Inequality weekly link roundup

Maybe you’re trying not to spend so much time on Twitter (or don’t use it), but why miss the things I share during the week? Here are some highlights:

Discrimination against Queer Women in the U.S. Workforce: A Résumé Audit Study, by Emma Mishel

Preregistration Challenge at the Center for Open Science

The Great Chocolate-Milk Concussion Scandal: How the University of Maryland got embroiled in a junk-science saga, Jesse Singal

Black Women Don’t Reap the Same Health Benefits from Delaying Motherhood as Whites (Elissa Straus in Slate covers my new paper)

A drone protester heads to jail, while Oregon protesters literally use heavy machinery to destroy Federal property

Nancy Folbre‘s tribute to the late Barbara Bergmann

Andrew Perrin reviews Aldon Morris on DuBois

Jay Livingston on Ted Cruz and “New York values”

How to bridge that stubborn pay gap, in NYTimes Upshot

The common-law marriage myth, in the Economist 

3 Lingering Questions From the Alice Goffman Controversy, by Jesse Singal

Dynamics of perceived social network support for same-sex versus mixed-sex relationships, by Diane Holmberg and Karen Blair

In D.C., Nearly Half Of Homeless Youth Identify As LGBTQ, Survey Finds, by Armando Trull

Hard Work and Marriage Aren’t the Magic Cure-Alls for Poverty Jeb Bush Is Hoping For, by Ally Boghun at RH Reality Check

  

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