The Mary situation remains dire, but she did beat the model for 2010.
The name Mary is in tough shape, having fallen out of the top 100 for U.S. girls for the first time ever in 2009. However, with the release of the new data for 2010, I can report that she outperformed my dire model, falling only to position #109, better than the expected #115.6.
Here are the updated figures:
My rocket science now predicts she will drop out of the top 1,000 in 2052 instead of 2046. And things could still turn around. From 1986 to 1994 it appeared Mary might be stabilizing, which in the case of Emma in the 1970s, for example, led to a dramatic turnaround and meteoric rise — from #450 to #3 today.
But I’m still mostly just bowled over that out of 2 million girls born, we can predict the number of Marys born to within 22! (That is, if the decline had continued at 8% per year – as it did for the past 5 years – there would have been 2,848 born in 2010. Instead there were 2,826.)