Births bottoming out?

Demographic Intelligence is getting some good media play for their latest Fertility ForecastBSTM. But I have no reason yet to revise my Fertility Forecast For Free (call it 2FF), last posted in May.

At the Population Reference Bureau blog, Carl Haub has a post on the declining rate of fertility decline. Whether this is just a slower slide, or a bottom, is not yet clear. My prediction was that fertility would hit bottom and rebound. Based on the curves in the May report, it’s promising but still too early to tell.

Haub’s post also includes a table that shows the decline slowing for a number of indicators:

I discussed the evidence that the fertility decline was recession-related herehere and here. I discussed Demographic Intelligence shenanigans in the bottom half of these two posts.

1 Comment

Filed under Uncategorized

One response to “Births bottoming out?

  1. They have an admirable willingness to abandon past beliefs based on new data:

    January 5, 2012:
    New Report: Baby Bust Is Over, Fertility Rising Again In U.S.
    “The report projects that the TFR will rise from 1.93 children per woman in 2010 to 1.98 children per woman in 2012.”
    http://www.jpma.org/content/press/news/new-report-baby-bust-over-fertility-rising-again-us

    July 26, 2012:
    Stagnant Economy May Cancel Out Expected Baby Boom
    “The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) will fall more than 10 percent from 2.12 children per woman in 2007 to 1.87 in 2012, according to the forecast.”
    Link: http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=263543

    Like

Comments welcome (may be moderated)

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s