Cross posted on the Families as They Really Are blog.
Disability is a very broad concept, representing a wide array of conditions that are not easily captured in a simple demographic survey. However, disabilities are very prevalent, especially in an aging society, and the people who experience disabilities differ in important ways from those who do not. Previously I reported — in a preliminary way — that people with disabilities are much more likely to divorce than those without. Here I present some numbers on marriage rates.
This isn’t the kind of thorough, probing analysis this subject requires. But I have two reasons to do it now. First is that I hope to motivate other people to pursue this issue in greater depth. And second, I want to highlight the importance of the data I’m using — the American Community Survey (ACS) — because it might be not available for much longer. These questions have been slated for demolition by the U.S. Census Bureau on cost-saving grounds. I put details about this issue — and how to register your opinion with the federal government — at the end of the post.
The ACS asks five disability questions (I put the shorthand label after each):
- Is this person deaf or does he/she have serious difficulty hearing? (Hearing)
- Is this person blind or does he/she have serious difficulty seeing even when wearing glasses? (Vision)
- Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does this person have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions? (Cognitive)
- Does this person have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs? (Ambulatory)
- Does this person have difficulty dressing or bathing? (Independent living)
These aren’t perfect questions, but they cover a lot of ground, and the ACS — which involves about 3 million households — can’t get into too much detail.
One great thing about having these questions on the giant ACS is you can use the data to get all the way down to the local level, or into small race/ethnic groups. And with the marital events questions, you can combine disability information and marriage information.
Using marital events (did you get married in the last year), marital history (how many times have you been married), detailed race and ethnicity breakdowns, and the disability questions above, I produced the following figure. This uses the combined 2008-2012 ACS data because these are small groups, but even with five years of data these groups get quite small. There are about 90,000 non-Hispanic Whites with a cognitive disability in my sample, but only 356 people who are both White and American Indian with a hearing disability (the smallest group I included). This sample is people ages 18-49 who have never been married (or just got married).
The overall marriage rate for never-married people ages 18-49 is 71.8 per 1,000. For people with disabilities it’s 41.1 (shown by the blue line). So that’s much lower than for the general population. But there is a very wide variation across these groups, from 15.5 per thousand for Blacks with disabilities in independent living all the way up to above the national average for Whites and White/American Indians with hearing disabilities. (For every condition, Blacks with disabilities have the lowest marriage rates.)
I don’t draw any conclusions here, except that this is an important subject and I hope more people will study it. Also, we need data like this.
In previous posts demonstrating the value of this data source, I wrote about:
- Divorce generally
- Divorce for “millennials” in 25 cities
- Divorce for Asian Americans from different national origins
Whether you are a researcher or some other member of the concerned public, I hope you will consider dropping the government a line about this before the end of the year.
The information about the planned cuts to the American Community Survey is here: https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/10/31/2014-25912/proposed-information-collection-comment-request-the-american-community-survey-content-review-results:
Direct all written comments to Jennifer Jessup, Departmental Paperwork Clearance Officer, Department of Commerce, Room 6616, 14th and Constitution Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20230 (or via the Internet at firstname.lastname@example.org).
Comments will be accepted until December 30.
* Erratum: In the original post I described this as a “first-marriage rate.” However, in checking over the code I used, I see that I used all marriages in the nominator, and never-married people in the denominator. Therefore, this is more accurately described as “marriages per 1000 never-married people.” It would have made more sense to just put first marriages in the numerator. For reference, the first-marriage rates were 54.0 for the total never-married 18-49 population, and 24.5 for those with a disability. I regret the error.