When you look at what has happened since the recession in 2008, the decline in birth was pretty dramatic, but it was all among women under age 35.
Two year follow-up to a post on path dependence.
In light of disparate impacts of COVID-19 itself and the social and economic fallout of the pandemic, research should concentrate on widening inequalities in fertility and family well-being, and their relationship to health disparities.
The text and figures of this short paper are below, and it's also available as a PDF on SocArXiv, in more citable form. The Stata code and other materials are up as well, here. It's pretty drafty -- very happy to hear any feedback. Preamble: When Sabrina Tavernise, Claire Cain Miller, Quoctrung Bui and Robert…
Some of the new numbers are small, in a very big way
Killing time while we wait for events to occur, I set up a dataset to build on.
There is no reason for US population decline, with even moderate levels of immigration. Immigration rates do not have to increase to maintain the current population.
2017 was a big year for fertility decline, at all but the highest ages, the economy is probably about to tank, and the U.S. fertility rate is still relatively high for our income level.
Taking a stab at replicating an analysis of 2000 Census data.
73% of them were identified as both White and Black by whoever filled out the Census form.