Against a perception of normal modernity that is on some kind of track that we can try to get a handle on while we work around distractions like a pandemic, climate change, diverging and growing inequality, the centrifugal tendency of identities to be fragmenting, and policy incoherence.
Projections show 86.2% for White women, and 61.7% for Black women, eventually marrying for a cohort born and living through conditions prevailing in 2019.
Divorce odds are lowest for women who marry later, and for people who've been married a long time.
When you look at what has happened since the recession in 2008, the decline in birth was pretty dramatic, but it was all among women under age 35.
Do family demography in light of disasters, inequalities, identities, and policies as messy, incoherent, unpredictable features of society – not bugs in the ointment of modern progress.
If one-half of the 2.2 million refugees are children, that's 1.1 million, which is 13% of the Ukraine's children. This is two weeks in, with no end in sight.
If anyone tells you that "facts are useless in an emergency," give them a bad grade.
The text and figures of this short paper are below, and it's also available as a PDF on SocArXiv, in more citable form. The Stata code and other materials are up as well, here. It's pretty drafty -- very happy to hear any feedback. Preamble: When Sabrina Tavernise, Claire Cain Miller, Quoctrung Bui and Robert…
Births fell more in January/February in those counties with more COVID-19 cases, and those with more mobility limitation, through the end of last May.
A 6-minute explainer, using 3 graphs, to help people understand.