Tag Archives: public opinion

Googling “Lost in Translation” versus “nativity scenes” across state political identities

Gallup’s tracking poll asks people “whether they describe their political views as liberal, moderate or conservative.” They released state rates for these identities yesterday. It’s useful for people who need current data on political characteristics of states. This is their map:

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I put the conservative-liberal gap, and the liberal-conservative gap, into Google Correlate, to see what searches are correlated with each index. The results are quite similar to the ones I got in September 2016 when I did this with 538’s predicted Clinton versus Trump margins. (Google doesn’t say exactly what period the searches cover.)

Google gives you the top 100 most-correlated searches with each index you upload. These are the ones correlated with the conservative-liberal difference, with my coding categories:

conlib

Here are the liberal-conservative correlated terms:

libcon

Draw your own conclusions. Fun coding exercise. Remember these aren’t the most common searches in conservative or liberal states, they’re the most correlated, meaning the most common ones in liberal states that are also uncommon in conservatives states, and vice versa.

Google outputs the numbers as z-scores, each search term having a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. And once you get them for the two different sets of correlations you can merge them together to see, for example, the negative correlation between searches for Lost in Translation (liberal) and nativity scenes (conservative):

litnat

Or vegetarian food and cook steaks:

vegcook

I did look at the “moderate” rates, and they yielded a bland list with nothing remarkable — things like “men’s volleyball shoes” and “print screen.” Also, Google couldn’t find a lot of search terms highly correlated with the “moderate” prevalence, the top correlation was only .73, versus .90-.92 for the liberals and conservatives. The average state is 36% moderate but the category seems to mean little.

Anyway, I love this stuff. You can see a whole series of these under the Google tag.

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Not-too-racist Whites of America: Do you want to be that person?

Everyone is at least a little racist. But hardly any Whites really actively want to hate Blacks and people from other racial-ethnic minority groups. And I bet that includes a lot of people who are thinking of voting for Trump. So this is for people who don’t want to be haters, or even seen as haters.

Think about it this way: Voting is pretty symbolic. Your individual vote is really not going to make the difference. But it says something about who you are, to yourself at least, and to anyone else who knows.

So look at these polling results for African Americans in five key states. Between 2 and 5 out of every 100 Black voters says they support Trump:

blacktrumpsupport

If you vote for Trump, because you’re angry about politicians who never get anything done, or you don’t trust Hillary, or you think it’s time for a change in Washington, think about this: do you want to spend the next four or eight years knowing that you voted against virtually every Black person who you will know or meet during that time?

Maybe they’re wrong. But I think, if you’re not the hating kind, it might gnaw at you, and you might feel better if you didn’t take that stand against them. I’m not trying to change your political views in a short blog post, but I do think we’ll get along better – and you will too – if you don’t vote for Trump.


Sources:

NYT/Siena: North Carolina, 9/16-9/19

Detroit Free Press: Michigan, 9/10-9/13

NYT/Siena: Florida, 9/10-/14

Monmouth: Georgia, 9/15-9/18

UMW: Virginia, 9/6-9/12

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Gender stall: Who wants a female boss edition

Gallup reports, “Americans Still Prefer a Male Boss.” But the glaring stall story in the trend hasn’t made the news. Here is the trend:

gallup-boss-preference

It looks to me like the percentage preferring a male boss hit 35% in 1994, and that’s where it stands now (they ask this hypothetical question of people whether they are employed or not). I don’t find the stall in any of the reporting.

Katy Waldman in Slate said the numbers “represent progress from 1953,” but didn’t mention the stall. Derek Thompson on the Atlantic site said, “In the last 60 years, the male/female boss gap has narrowed from 61 points to just 8 12 points” (he corrected it when I pointed out the arithmetic error). He didn’t mention that the gap was down to about 15 points already by the early 1990s — two decades ago.

Another Atlantic story (which corrected the starting date of the trend after I pointed out the error — hitting my limit of two free corrections per corporate site per day) was titled, “When It Comes to Female Bosses, Women Can Be Their Own Worst Enemy,” and also made no mention of the stalled trend. Other writeups also mentioned the female-boss preference was “up significantly from 1953.”

I wish there were an understanding of the gender stall among the web-based-journalism class. Gallup reasonably wrote in their release:

It is also possible that the experience of working for a female boss affects workers’ preferences. If the latter is the case, and if the proportion of U.S. workers who have female bosses increases in the future, the current preference for a male boss in the overall population could dissipate.

Thompson seized on that conclusion, but missed the equivocation:

The upshot, which Gallup emphasizes, is that most Americans work for guys today, and as more women become bosses, more Americans will probably feel comfortable with women as their boss—or, just as likely, decide it doesn’t really make a difference in the first place.

And the other Atlantic piece mention it, either, concluding, “so there’s hope yet.” (In fairness to the Atlantic writers, where are they going to get this information? Their own site hasn’t published one of my posts mentioning the stall in gender progress since April — ok, twice in April — and before that you’d have to go back to February, February, or December. And that’s, like, a billion Tweets ago.)

But anyway, how about that increase in female managers, who are likely to change these widespread social attitudes against female managers? Don’t hold your breath:

pctfem-managers-cpsNo change since the mid-1990s. Who knew? People who, for example:

Or others who look carefully at the trends they’re reading and writing about.

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