The text and figures of this short paper are below, and it's also available as a PDF on SocArXiv, in more citable form. The Stata code and other materials are up as well, here. It's pretty drafty -- very happy to hear any feedback. Preamble: When Sabrina Tavernise, Claire Cain Miller, Quoctrung Bui and Robert…
Continue reading ➞ Hard times and falling fertility in the United States
2017 was a big year for fertility decline, at all but the highest ages, the economy is probably about to tank, and the U.S. fertility rate is still relatively high for our income level.
You could interpret this as a continuous decline with a major detour caused by the recession, but that case is weaker than it was yesterday.
Maybe recession-related divorces took a couple years to materialize, producing a lull in the ongoing plunge.
I wrote this for The Conversation. Read the original here. Observers may be quick to declare social trends “good” or “bad” for families, but such conclusions are rarely justified. What’s good for one family – or group of families – may be bad for another. And within families, interests do not always align. Divorce is…
Continue reading ➞ Fewer births and divorces, more violence: how the recession affected the American family
Alternate title: Why adjusting the employment trends by age and sex will shock you, in five charts.
If the recession costs a guy his job, and his marriage almost falls apart, but doesn't quite, how is that reducing divorce?
We lost about 150,000 divorces because of the recession. Maybe.
A frustrating lack of resolution to the recession divorce story, and the 2012 rate: 19 divorces per 1,000 married people.
If intimate partner violence is partly triggered by men's economic hardship and insecurity, then the 2008-2009 spike might fit a recession story.